Croatian Presidential Election 2014 Prediction

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The 2014 Croatian presidential election will be an election without a campaign. There is something odd about the upcoming presidential election. The incumbent candidate, Ivo Josipovic, has taken a very low visibility campaign approach. The first round election is on December 28 which will lead to historically low voter turnout. The president may be in conflict of interest if he used funds from his office to carry out market research for his campaign.

The Croatian presidential elections, first round, will be held on Sunday, December 28, 2014.

My prediction is that voter turnout will hit a historic low due to the voter suppression tactics taken by the government. Setting the first round election three days after Christmas will make this a non-election and no Catholic in their right mind will do any sort of campaigning for at least 5 days before the election.

My first round prediction

660,000 = Ivo Josipovic
480,000 = Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic
220,000 = Milan Kujundzic
80,000 = don Ivan Grubisic
70,000 = Ivan Rudela
50,000 = Anto Dapic
150,000 = Others
Total = 1,690,0000

Updated - December 12
taking out candidates that did not collect enough signatures

700,000 = 41.4% = Ivo Josipovic
660,000 = 39.1% = Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic
250,000 = 14.8% - Milan Kujundzic
80,000 = 4.7% = Ivan Vilibor Sincic

While the votes for Kolinda seem a bit low, they are twice the number of votes that Andrija Hebrang, the HDZ candidate, received in 2009. These estimates are based on brand momentum and WAG analysis.

Voter Suppression

Difficult questions for candidates for the period December 22 to 27:
  • How many campaign ads do you put on TV ?
  • How many rallies do you organize?
  • How much do you ask of your campaign staff?

People will be focussed on Christmas and there will be very few volunteers available to do the ground work required to carry out a Get Out To Vote campaign. Voters will not be listening to election campaign messaging as they will be spending time either shopping for gifts ro getting the home ready for family celebrations.

The campaign will be primarily between the HDZ candidate Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic and the SDP candidate because they have established organizational infrastructure. Underdog challengers like Milan Kujundzic that have no infrastructure will receive low support at the polls, not because they are not popular but because they have not had time to develop a campaign machine for the ground war and no time to develop popularity amongst the political center and undecided voters.

What is the president hiding?

Ivo Josipovic knows something the others don't and he is "in hiding" playing the passive avoidance, no-campaign election campaign. The president agreed to have a debate with Milan Kujundzic and then changed his mind. It is as if he knows that the election is his to lose and the only way to lose his brand momentum is to do something dumb and so he does nothing of relevance.

The socialists know that, since the death of Franjo Tudman, the Croatian voters have a significant predisposition to voting for a socialist candidate. Why? Do they hold the HDZ responsible for the horrible situation with the nation?

In first round elections
  • 2000 Stjepan Mesić (HNS) is elected with Dražen Budiša (HSLS) in second place. In the first round 77.4% of voters voted against the HDZ candidate Mate Granić
  • 2005 Stjepan Mesić (HNS) is elected with a higher percentage of votes than he had in 2000! HDZ candidate Jadranka Kosor came in second place. In the first round 79.7% of votes were against HDZ.
  • 2009 Ivo Josipović (SDP) is elected by a wide margin. In the first round 88% voted against the HDZ candidate Andrija Hebrang who did not enter the second round.

My prediction is that Ivo Josipović will win again.
Why? Communists do not care about Christmas!

Conflict of interest?

Ivo Josipovic's office (Office of the President) ran market research last month making some obvious announcements about what people want. More democracy and less corruption blah blah blah - things that the people were asking for via referendum! Press release here + PDF of report here (in Croatian)

On October 26, I made a request to the Office of the President to provide me with; (1) cost of the research and (2) all the raw data of the research. The request was made under the Right of Access to Information Act (Official Gazette NN No. 25/13).

I was not provided with the cost of the research and pertaining to the research itself I was not given the raw data as requested. I have sent a number of reminder requests but the person in the office, Danja Silovic Karic email: Danja.Silovic.Karic@predsjednik.hr, has been ignoring my requests. Her one and only response was on October 27.

Questions to President Ivo Josipovic

  1. Why is your office not providing me with the information that I requested under the Croatian Access to Information Act?
  2. Why is your office not providing the data, which belongs to the people is your office paid for it, to all candidates?
  3. Did you or your office use the budget of the president to do market research for his election campaign? If not, who paid the bill to IPSOS for the research that was carried out.

The Kujundzic Enigma

The left-leaning media is quite oddly promoting Milan Kujundzic as a strong contender (candidate with chance of winning) to get into the second round. This is odd since the left-wing media usually ignores right-wing candidates.

While I do hope for the best for Milan Kujundzic, I can't understand how he can get enough votes to get into the second round when he has an amateurish part-time campaign with few resources. He does not have the money for an large air-game and no IS/IT and not enough volunteers for the ground-game required for a GOTV campaign.

  • Where are the other leaders of the Alliance for Croatia that should be promoting him?
  • Where are the celebrity endorsements?
  • Where are the associations that should be flocking to help him?

I wonder what the media is trying to accomplish by exaggerating the number of votes that are realistic for the "poor challenger".

Updated 25th-December-2014 at 07:44 PM by Željko Zidarić